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The 10-Day Advanced Financial Modelling & Petroleum Project Economics

Dates Venues Fees CPE  
29 Oct - 09 Nov 2017 Dubai US$ 10000 60 Register Now
04 Nov - 15 Nov 2018 Dubai US$ 10250 60 Register Now


In the globally competitive world of the 21st century business decision-makers face unprecedented levels of change, risk and uncertainty and nowhere is this more true than in the oil and gas sector. To survive and flourish in this dynamic environment petroleum professionals need the right tools with which to analyse the economic and other challenges faced by their organisations and to anticipate and manage the many opportunities and threats that may emerge. Traditional forms of economic and financial analysis no longer meet these needs and the most progressive firms are using the power of financial models to help them analyse the challenges and take a more powerful approach to managing risk and uncertainty in their planning and forecasting.

This training seminar will highlight:

  • The challenge of risk and uncertainty in modern business
  • Principles of business planning and performance management
  • How financial models can be used to improve business decision-making
  • Practical skills in designing financial models using Excel
  • Advanced approach to analysing oil and gas sector economic indicators

The training seminar is split into two modules:

MODULE I – Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting

MODULE II – Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis

Each module is structured and can be taken as a stand-alone training course; however, delegates will maximise their benefits by taking Module 1 and 2 back-to-back as a two-weeks training course.


This hands-on training seminar has been designed to provide petroleum sector delegates with real practical skills to design and build financial models that will have highly relevant applications in modern oil and gas organisations. By applying advanced techniques for economic and financial analysis, delegates will develop improved skills in forecasting and business decision-making.

At the end of this training seminar, you will learn to:

  • Plan the design and functionality of economic and financial models in Excel
  • Use powerful functions built in to Excel for statistical and financial analysis
  • Apply financial analysis techniques to improve investment decision-making
  • Design and build financial models for forecasting sales, costs and profit
  • Implement up to date techniques for managing risk and uncertainty
  • Use financial models to assist in business decision-making

Training Methodology

This is a highly participative workshop style training seminar focused on developing practical skills that delegates can apply in real life business situations on return to their own organisation. Each module includes a thorough review of the relevant theory before focusing on life-like business case studies with which delegates can practice the design and construction of financial models, analysis tools and forecast applications in Excel, using laptops provided for the training seminar.

Organisational Impact

The organisation will benefit from the practical implementation of up to date techniques in financial analysis, forecasting and financial modelling that can be applied to improve the quality and relevance of business decision-making in the context of modern levels of risk and uncertainty – specifically:

  • An integrated approach to managing business risk and uncertainty
  • The use of financial analysis tools improve business information and insights
  • Application of economic and financial models to petroleum project decision-making
  • Improved forecasting tools and performance management systems
  • Better quality information as the basis for capital investment decisions

Personal Impact

Delegates will benefit from this hands-on workshop that has been designed to provide them with the essential theory of financial analysis, forecasting and financial decision-making whilst focusing heavily on building the practical skills to develop their own financial models in Excel.

The training course will greatly enhance their contribution to organisational performance and improve their career prospects by:

  • Developing an awareness of the nature and management of risk and uncertainty
  • Greater involvement in management planning and decision-making
  • Improved knowledge of Excel and its most powerful financial functions
  • Using powerful Excel economic and financial modelling skills for forecasting and decision-making
  • Applying up to date methods to planning and forecasting
  • Understanding and applying investment decision-making techniques

Who Should Attend?

The training seminar is designed to provide useful insights and practical skills to professionals from a wide range of disciplines and industry sectors, but particularly those involved in planning, forecasting and investment decision-making in an age of risk and uncertainty.

This training seminar is suitable to a wide range of petroleum sector professionals but will greatly benefit:

  • Finance professionals
  • Budgeting and planning managers
  • Commercial managers
  • Divisional managers
  • Purchasing and supply chain managers
  • Project managers

Day1 - Module 1 - Financial Analysis, Modelling & Forecasting

Tools to Meet the Challenges of the 21st Century

  • The nature and challenge of competitive business
  • Managing risk and uncertainty
  • Business planning and performance management
  • Measuring the key drivers of business success
  • Financial models – what they are and how to use them most effectively
  • Best practice in building financial models
  • How to get the best results using Excel

Day2 - Building Models for Financial Statement and Ratio Analysis

  • The financial analysis tool kit
  • Building a company financial database in Excel
  • Excel charting basics
  • Analysing the cost-volume-profit relationship
  • Understanding the drivers of shareholder value
  • Modelling and interpreting financial rations
  • Using the model to improve business performance

Day3 - Building Forecasting Models

  • Understanding the drivers of profit and cash flow
  • Designing and building a cash flow forecast model
  • Using Excel’s built-in data analysis tools
  • Analysing trends in past data – moving averages and regression tools
  • Designing and building a sales forecast model
  • Designing and building a cost forecast model
  • Avoiding common problems in forecasting

Day4 - Building Models for Capital Investment Decisions

  • Principles of capital investment decision-making
  • Building a model to calculate company cost of capital
  • The time value of money and principles of discounted cash flow (DCF)
  • Understanding and using Excel’s built-in DCF functions
  • Designing and building a capital investment appraisal model
  • Principles of business valuation
  • Designing and building a business valuation model

Day5 - Building Models for Managing Risk and Uncertainty

  • The impact of risk on financial performance
  • Identifying the key drivers of financial performance and strength
  • “What if” forecasts and how they work
  • Designing and building a financial statement forecasting model
  • How to use Excel Goal Seek tool
  • Using Excel’s Scenario Manager tool
  • Building rolling forecast models in Excel

Day6 - Module 2 - Petroleum Project Economics & Risk Analysis

Cash Flow Analysis

  • Familiarization with Economic terms
  • Setting up Cash Flow Calculation
  • Depreciation Methods
  • Loss Carry Forwards
  • Inflation
  • Nominal & Real Cash Flow
  • Sunk Costs
  • Project Financing

Day7 - Economic Indicators

  • Economic Indicators Definitions
  • Present Value Concept
  • Discount Factor
  • Net Present Value
  • Internal Rate of Return
  • Effect of Project Delay
  • Payback Period
  • Profit/Investment Ratio
  • Incremental Projects

Day8 - Risks and Uncertainties

  • Risk & Uncertainty
  • Expected Value Concept
  • Decision Tree Analysis
  • Farm-out Decision
  • Probability Analysis
  • Sensitivity Analysis
  • Probability Distribution
  • Monte Carlo Simulation

Day9 - Setting up Spreadsheet Calculation

  • Introduction to Spreadsheet Calculation
  • Simple Cash Flow using Excel
  • NPV calculations
  • Application of economic indicators
  • Class discussion

Day10 - Setting up Oil Field Development Model

  • Group activities
  • Setting up an Integrated Economic Model of a Typical Oil Field Development
  • Project Sensitivity Analysis for the selected model
  • Introduction to Russell field model
  • Final remarks